Sebastiano Manzan

Assc Professor

Zicklin School of Business

Department: Bert Wasserman Dept Eco & Fin

Areas of expertise:

Email Address: sebastiano.manzan@baruch.cuny.edu

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Education

Ph.D., Economics, University of Amsterdam Netherlands

MSc, Economics & Finance, Venice International University Italy

BSc, Economics, University of Venice Italy

SemesterCourse PrefixCourse NumberCourse Name
Fall 2023ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2023BUS90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2023ECON81600Sem in Empir Res in Macro Thry
Fall 2023DCT90301Dissertation Research - Propos
Fall 2023DCT90102Econometric Methods
Summer 2023DCT90220Position Paper Defense
Summer 2023DCT90120Position Paper Research
Spring 2023ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2023BUS90000Dissertation Supervision
Spring 2023ECO6002HHonors Courses in Economics
Spring 2023ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2022BUS90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2022ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2022ECO6001HHonors Courses in Economics
Fall 2022ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2022DCT90102Econometric Methods
Summer 2022DCT90120Position Paper Research
Spring 2022ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2022ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2022ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Spring 2022BUS90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2021ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2021ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2021DCT90102Econometric Methods
Spring 2021ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2020ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2020ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2020ECON90000Dissertation Supervision
Fall 2018DBA90102Econometric Methods for Business Research I
Spring 2018ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Fall 2017ECO4093Special Topics in Economics
Fall 2017ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2017ECO6002HHonors Courses in Economics
Fall 2017DBA90102Econometric Methods for Business Research I
Spring 2017FIN9891Special Topics in Investments
Spring 2017ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2017ECO6001HHonors Courses in Economics
Spring 2017ECO6002HHonors Courses in Economics
Spring 2017ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2016BUS4093HHonors Special Topics in Bus
Fall 2016ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2016ECO6001HHonors Courses in Economics
Spring 2016ECO6002HHonors Courses in Economics
Fall 2015ECON89800Seminar in Applied Economics I
Fall 2015ECO9723Econometrics - Theory & App I
Fall 2015ECON89810Seminar Applied Economics III
Fall 2015ECO6001HHonors Courses in Economics
Spring 2015ECO9794Special Topics in Economics
Spring 2015ECON97230Econometrics-Thry/Applic I
Spring 2015FIN9891Special Topics in Investments
Spring 2015ECO9723Econometrics - Theory & App I
Fall 2014ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2014ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2014ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2014ECO5000Independent Research ECO I
Fall 2013ECO5000Independent Research ECO I
Fall 2013ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Fall 2013ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2013FIN9772Quantitative Tools for Finance
Fall 2013FIN9772Quantitative Tools for Finance
Spring 2013ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2013ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Fall 2012FIN9772Quantitative Tools for Finance
Fall 2012ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2012ECO4051HHon Fin Econometrics
Spring 2012ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2012ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2012MBA9115Executive MBA Mod D
Spring 2011ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2011ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2010ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2010ECO4051Financial Econometrics
Spring 2010ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2009ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Fall 2008ECO4000HHonors - Statistics Analysis
Fall 2008ECO6002Honors Courses in Economics
Fall 2008ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2008ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin
Spring 2008ECO4000HHonors - Statistics Analysis
Spring 2008ECO6001Honors Courses in Economics
Fall 2007ECO4000HHonors - Statistics Analysis
Fall 2007ECO4000Sta Analysis Eco/Fin

Books

Manzan, S. (2017). Introduction to Financial Econometrics. In Progress.

Journal Articles

(2024). Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe. Macroeconomic Dynamics,

Barbaglia, L., Manzan, S., & Tosetti, E. (2023). Forecasting Loan Default in Europe with Machine Learning. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 21(2). 569–596.

Barbaglia, L., Consoli, S., & Manzan, S. (2023). Forecasting with Economic News. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 41(3).

Barbaglia, L., Consoli, S., & Manzan, S. (2023). Forecasting GDP in Europe with textual data. Journal of Applied Econometrics,

Consoli, S., Barbaglia, L., & Manzan, S. (2022). Fine-grained, aspect-based sentiment analysis on economic and financial lexicon. Knowledge-Based Systems, 247.

Manzan, S. (2021). Are professional forecasters Bayesian?. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (123).

Manzan, S. (2015). Forecasting the distribution of economic variables in a data-rich environment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 33. 144-164.

Manzan, S., & Zerom, D. (2015). Asymmetric quantile persistence and predictability: the case of US inflation. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77. 297-318.

Hua, J., & Manzan, S. (2013). Forecasting the Return Distribution using High-Frequency Volatility Measures. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(11). 4381-4403.

Manzan, S., & Zerom, D. (2013). Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(3). 469-478.

(2011). U.S. Manufacturing: Productivity, Offshoring, and Imports. Economics Bulletin, 31(4). 2875-2883.

(2011). Differential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 43. 993-1017.

(2010). A Semiparametric Analysis of Gasoline Demand in the US: Reexamining the Impact of Price. Econometric Reviews, 29. 439-468.

(2008). "Bootstrap-based Nonparametric Forecast Density". International Journal of Forecasting, 24(3). 25 pgs.

(2007). "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(6). 1938-1970.

(2007). "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability". Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 64(1). 111-128.

(2007). "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Stock Prices". Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, 1(3). 1-20.

(2005). "Kernel Estimation of a Partially Linear Additive Model". Statistics and Probability Letters, 72. 313-322.

(2005). "Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time Series: A Comment". Journal of Macroeconomics, 28. 169-174.

(2005). "Representativeness of News and Exchange Rate Dynamics". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(4). 677-689.

(2004). "Does liquidity in the FX market depend on volatility?". Economics Bulletin, 6(10). 1-8.

(2004). "Model Selection for Nonlinear Time Series". Empirical Economics, 29(4). 901-920.

(2002). "Tests for Serial Independence and Linearity Based on Correlation Integrals". Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 6(2). 21.

Sentiment Analysis of Economic Text: A Lexicon-based Approach .

Book Chapters

Manzan, S. (2022). Big Data and Computational Social Science for Economic Analysis and Policy. In Bertoni, E., Fontana, M., Gabrielli, L., Signorelli, S., & Vespe, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Computational Social Science for Policy (pp. 231-242). Springer.

Manzan, S. (2009). Agent-based models in Finance. In Meyers, R. (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science Springer.

Presentations

Manzan, S. (2022, June 16). Household Debt and Economic Growth in Europe. Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF) Conference. Dallas, USA: Southern Methodist University / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Manzan, S. (2022, March 14). Forecasting GDP in Europe with Textual Data. 4th QES NLP and Machine Learning in Investment Management Conference. New Yrok: Wolfe Research.

Manzan, S. (2019, December 31). Forecasting with Economic News. Economics Seminar, Maastricht University. Maastricht, Netherlands: Maastricth University.

Manzan, S. (2019, February 28). Are professional forecasters bayesian?. Department of Economics, University of York. York, United Kingdom: University of York.

Manzan, S. (2019, December 31). Are professional forecasters bayesian?. Economics Seminar, Dutch Central Bank. Amsterdam, the Netherlands: Dutch Central Bank.

Manzan, S. (2019, December 31). Forecasting with Economic News. Alternative datasets for macro analysis and monetary policy. Milan, Italy: Bocconi University.

Manzan, S. (2019, December 31). Forecasting with Economic News. Economics Seminar, Bank of Spain. Madrid, Spain: Bank of Spain.

Manzan, S. (2018, August 31). Are Professional Forecasters Bayesian?. European Meeting of the Econometric Society. Cologne (Germany): Econometric Society.

Manzan, S. (2016, July 31). Are Professional Forecasters Bayesian?. Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF). Bordeaux (France): Society for Computational Economics.

Manzan, S. (2015, June 30). Are professional forecasters Bayesian?. International Association of Applied Econometrics Annual Meeting. Thessaloniki (Greece)

Manzan, S. (2014, July 31). Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of inflation?. International Association of Applied Econometrics Annual Meeting. London (UK)

Manzan, S. (2013, May 31). Forecasting economic variables in a data-rich environment. Riverside, CA: University of California, Riverside.

Manzan, S. (2013, June 30). Forecasting economic variables in a data-rich environment. Canadian Economic Association Annual Conference. Montreal, Canada

Manzan, S. (2013, April 30). Forecasting the distribution of economic variables in a data-rich environment. 21st Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. Milan (Italy): University of Milan.

Manzan, S. (2013, November 30). Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of inflation?. Graduate Center Macroeconomics Colloquium.

Manzan, S. (2012, March 31). Forecasting the return distribution using high-frequency volatility measures. 20th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. Istanbul (Turkey): Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2012, October 31). Forecasting the distribution of economic variables in a data-rich environment. NBER-NSF Time Series Conference. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University.

Manzan, S. (2011, January 31). Differential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association. Denver, CO: American Economic Association.

Manzan, S. (2010, April 30). Differential Interpretation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. 18th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. Novara (Italy): Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2010, October 31). Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of inflation?. NBER-NSF Time Series Conference. Durham, NC: Duke University.

Manzan, S. (2009, April 30). . NY Camp Econometrics. Lake Placid

Manzan, S. (2009, July 31). Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of inflation?. NBER Summer Institute. Cambridge, MA: NBER.

Manzan, S. (2009, December 31). . 17th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. Atlanta, GA: Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2008, May 31). . Invited presentations. : Rutgers University (USA).

Manzan, S. (2007, December 31). . 15th Symposium. Paris (France): Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2007, December 31). . Invited presentation. : University of Warwick (UK).

Manzan, S. (2006, December 31). . European meeting. Vienna (Austria): Econometric Society.

Manzan, S. (2006, December 31). . Invited presentation. : University of Essex, (UK).

Manzan, S. (2005, December 31). . 13th Symposium. London (UK): Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2005, December 31). . Invited presentation. University of Alberta (Canada): School of Business.

Manzan, S. (2004, December 31). . Time Series Conference,. Dallas (USA): NBER/NSF.

Manzan, S. (2004, December 31). . Invited presentation. : University of Manchester (UK).

Manzan, S. (2004, December 31). . Annual meeting. Amsterdam (the Netherlands): Society for Computational Economics.

Manzan, S. (2003, December 31). . Annual Meeting. Stockholm (Sweden): European Economic Association.

Manzan, S. (2003, December 31). . Invited presentation. : University Carlos III Madrid (Spain).

Manzan, S. (2002, December 31). . Invited presentation. : Erasmus University of Rotterdam (The Netherlands).

Manzan, S. (2002, December 31). . Conference on Nonparametric Statistics. Crete (Greece)

Manzan, S. (2002, December 31). . 10th Symposium. Atlanta (USA): Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

Manzan, S. (2002, December 31). . Annual Meeting. New York (USA): American Statistical Association.

Manzan, S. (2000, December 31). . Conference. Dublin (Ireland): EC2, European Econometric.

Manzan, S. (2000, December 31). . Time Series Conference. Fort Collins (USA): NBER/NSF.

TitleFunding Agency SponsorStart DateEnd DateAwarded DateTotal FundingStatus
Monitoring the Economy with News SentimentPSC CUNY 5307/01/202206/30/202304/15/20223499Completed
Consumer Behavior and the Business CyclePSC CUNY 5207/01/202106/30/202304/15/20213500Completed
Modeling Survey Density Forecasts and the RSPF packagePSC-CUNY 4707/01/201606/30/201704/15/20165994.2Completed
Comparing the accuracy of Macro-Econometric Models to Forecast the Distribution of Economic VariablesPSC-CUNY 4607/01/201506/30/201604/17/20153494Completed
Behavioral Heterogeneity in the Survey of Professional ForecastersPSC-CUNY 4507/01/201406/30/201504/15/20143500Completed
Density forecasts in the Survey of Professional forecastersPSC-CUNY 4407/01/201306/30/201404/15/20133497Completed
Forecating the distributionPSC-CUNY 4307/01/201206/30/201304/17/20123500Completed
Using Disaggregate Expenditure Data to Forecast Aggregate US InflationPSC-CUNY 4207/01/201106/30/201204/15/20113396Completed
Forecasting the distribution of inflation in a data-rich environmentPSC-CUNY 4107/01/201006/30/20114706.8Completed
Heterogeneity of Expectations in EconomicPSC-CUNY 4007/01/200906/30/20103000Completed
Monitoring the Economy with News SentimentNational Science Foundation03/01/202202/28/2025336573Submitted for Review
Honor / AwardOrganization SponsorDate ReceivedDescription
2018 Teaching Excellence AwardZicklin School of Business2018
2011 Teaching Excellence AwardZicklin School of Business2011

College

Committee NamePosition RoleStart DateEnd Date
Department Curriculum CommitteeCommittee Member6/1/2018
Graduate Curriculum CommitteeCommittee Member6/1/2018
ECO 4000 CoordinatorFaculty Advisor6/1/2018
Department Personel and Budget CommitteeCommittee Member6/1/2018
Zicklin Honors Advisory CommitteeCommittee Member6/1/2016
Baruch College Fellowships Advisory CommitteeCommittee Member6/1/2016
Undergraduate Advisor - Economics12/31/2015
Orientation for minor/major/MBA in Economics12/31/2013
Commitee on Educational Technology12/31/2012
Graduate Committee on Assurance of LearningCommittee Member12/31/2011
Summer Seminar: Zicklin Honors ProgramCommittee Member12/31/2011
Task force on Quantitative LiteracyCommittee Member12/31/2010
Representative to the Weissman School of Arts and Sciences12/31/2010

University

Committee NamePosition RoleStart DateEnd Date
Doctoral Faculty PhD Program in Business1/1/2013Present
Doctoral Faculty PhD Program in Economics1/1/2011Present
Summer Collaborative Research Opportunity Grant programGrant Proposal Reviewer, Internal1/1/201712/31/2017

Professional

OrganizationPosition RoleOrganization StateOrganization CountryStart DateEnd DateAudience
Review of Economics and StatisticsReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2020PresentInternational
Journal of Financial EconometricsReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2012Present
Journal of Banking and FinanceReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2011Present
Journal of Applied EconometricsReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2010Present
Journal of Economic Behavior and OrganizationReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2008Present
Journal of Money, Credit, and BankingReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2008Present
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and EconometricsReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2003Present
Journal of Economic Dynamics and ControlReviewer, Journal Article1/1/2003Present
Macroeconomic DynamicsReviewer, Grant Proposal1/1/2007Present
Big Data and Economic Forecasting Workshop 2Workshop OrganizerItaly3/1/20213/31/2021
Big Data and Economic Forecasting Workshop 1Workshop OrganizerItaly5/1/20195/31/2019
Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 20th Annual SymposiumWorkshop Organizer4/1/20144/30/2014

Public

OrganizationPosition RoleOrganization StateOrganization CountryStart DateEnd DateAudience
Joint Research Centre, European CommissionTask Force ChairLombardyItaly9/1/20196/1/2020International