Q3 Survey: Economic Confidence Rises as More CFOs Plan to Hire
- Over Half Planning to Hire in Next Six Months, Taking Actions to Retain Talent
- Renewed Interest in M&A
- Uncertainty on Accounting Standards Looms
MORRISTOWN, N.J. and NEW YORK, N.Y., November 1, 2010 – Chief Financial Officers are slowly but surely easing from the recession, and are finding new opportunities to hire, despite unemployment levels remaining historically high. According to the most recent survey of CFOs conducted by Financial Executives International (FEI) and Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business, many companies are focused on retaining their existing talent, and are taking measures to do so. As their overall optimism rises, an increasing number of CFOs are showing interest in making acquisitions, demonstrating progress from the previous year.
According to the Q3 2010 “CFO Outlook Survey,” CFOs are showing steady signs of increased confidence. Following last quarter’s sudden decline, the Q3 CFO Optimism Index for the U.S. economy bounced back to rise nearly two points (from 53.60 to 55.20), and the outlook for CFOs’ own companies showed a comparable increase (67.40 in Q2 to 69.1 in Q3).
Earlier this year, CFOs accurately predicted that the U.S. unemployment rate would continue to remain high over the following six to 12 months. While CFOs this quarter continue to forecast high unemployment nationwide (on average predicting at least nine percent through October 2011), hiring prospects at their own companies paint a rosier picture. More than half (56%) plan to hire additional employees within the next six months, and overall they anticipate a four percent increase in hiring over the next six months.
This quarter’s survey also revealed that, coming out of the recession and following the staff reductions experienced by many, retention of remaining talent is a priority for 80 percent of CFOs. Training and development slightly outranked compensation as the top tactic for retaining talent (47% and 45% respectively), and were followed by improvements to office atmosphere and team building (both 35%), and ensuring opportunities for career advancements (30%).
“The increase in CFOs’ confidence in October is promising news, especially compared with the alarming dip the index experienced in the second quarter,” said John Elliott, Dean of the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College. “Though they remain bearish on the national unemployment situation for the long-term, more than half of the CFOs indicate plans to hire in the next six months. Hopefully these plans will turn into action that will affect U.S. unemployment rates favorably.”
While this quarter’s survey inquired about CFOs’ attitudes toward hiring, unemployment and retention, it also explored their perspectives on the future of their own careers. The survey revealed that many plan to work beyond the traditional retirement age, and are in favor of increasing the retirement age. Forty-one percent of CFOs anticipate that they will work past age 65 out of desire, and 31 percent will do so out of need; three percent of them are already working beyond 65. With regard to the idea of an overall increase to the traditional U.S. retirement age, fifty-nine percent would be in favor, with three years being the average desired increase among those respondents who specified an age.
CFOs’ extended tenures may also impact their mixed approach to succession plans for their own positions. In a time where succession plans have become increasingly important to key stakeholders, less than a third (30%) of CFOs currently have a plan in place. While 40 percent of the remaining CFOs believe a plan should be created, another 31 percent do not see the need for one at all.
Increased Interest in M&A; Targets Largely Domestic
CFOs are demonstrating relatively healthy balance sheets, and see opportunities to boost their M&A activity in the short term. On average, the capitalization of respondents’ balance sheets is comprised of 65 percent equity and 33 percent in long-term debt obligations, and banks are their most commonly used source for accessing capital. Over the next 12 months, they are predicting increases in net earnings (13%), capital spending (11%) and revenue (8%), though their projected increases in these areas are slightly lower when compared with Q2. Their inflation concerns remain relatively low, with nearly 60 percent citing concerns as only a “one” or “two” on a scale of one through five (with “one” being “not concerned”).
When comparing M&A plans relative to the previous quarter, over a third (34%) of respondents to the Q3 survey said their company’s interest in making acquisitions has increased. Only three percent of CFOs said their interest in M&A had decreased, significantly lower than Q2 2009 when the percentage of respondents with decreased M&A interest was 19 percent. While most respondents (73%) see no change in their company’s interest as an acquisition target, there are nearly one fourth that said interest had increased (23%). This number is up over Q2 2009, when only 16 percent indicated that interest as an acquisition target had increased. Sixty-seven percent of respondents also specified a particular region for acquisitions, but nearly all of them are limiting their targets to North America (92%). Asia (19%) and Europe (17%) came in a distant second and third place as targeted regions.
“While M&A activity has been lower in recent years, we see the increased interest in acquisitions by a third of our CFOs as a strong indicator of where businesses are trending,” said Marie Hollein, President and CEO of FEI. “CFOs are often at the forefront of these transactions and they appear to be able to leverage the cash on their balance sheets for further expansion. Their preference for largely domestic targets is natural as many of the respondents’ companies are private, but a certain section of them are also starting to examine markets across the globe.”
CFOs Weigh In On Accounting Standards
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) remains a hot button issue among CFOs, and the findings from this quarter’s survey demonstrate that amid the chatter, there is still some uncertainty on the timing, and anticipated impact of, global convergence. When asked about their confidence as to whether a global adoption of IFRS is obtainable, most CFOs (81%) feel that it is achievable, but they remain unsure when this would happen. Another 16 percent do not think IFRS will ever be adopted. In relation to IFRS, 48 percent of respondents identified themselves as private companies that prefer U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), nearly a fifth (19%) are private companies that prefer a separate set of standards, and 13 percent are private companies contemplating IFRS for small to mid-size enterprises (SMEs). Additionally, 15 percent of respondents were public companies that prefer U.S. GAAP over IFRS, and the remaining 6 percent stated that they were public companies that will adopt IFRS if the SEC permits.
CFOs have also not yet gauged the impact of the recent decision by the Financial Accounting Foundation to add two new board seats to the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Most are unsure if it will have any impact on the adoption of IFRS (41%), and about a fifth (19%) anticipate no impact. CFOs overall remain confident that the FASB additions will not lessen the quality (65%) or rate (59%) of U.S. accounting standard setting.
CFO Predictions & Additional Results
CFOs this quarter shared a few predictions for key economic indicators over the next six to twelve months:
- CFOs expect the strength of the U.S. dollar vs. the Euro exchange rate to slightly weaken: 1.3615 six months from now; 1.3662 One year from now1
- CFOs expect the strength of the U.S. dollar against the Pound to slightly increase: 1.5298 six months from now; 1.5262 one year from now2
- CFOs expect an increase in the annualized rate of inflation: 1.4% six months from now; 2% one year from now3
- CFOs feel the Federal Reserve should increase the federal funds rate: 0.39 six months from now; 0.71 a year from now4
Full survey results and historical data comparisons are available at www.financialexecutives.org or from Nicole Madison at Nicole.Madison@fd.com. The study is also available online at the Financial Executives Research Foundation bookstore and on the Baruch College home page at www.baruch.cuny.edu.
Overview of the Survey:
This quarter, the CFO Outlook Survey, conducted by Financial Executives International and Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business, interviewed 249 corporate CFOs electronically from October 6-14. CFOs from both public and private companies and from a broad range of industries, revenues and geographic areas, including some off-shore companies, are represented. Survey respondents are members of Financial Executives International.
Financial Executives International has been conducting surveys gauging the country’s economic outlook from the perspective of CFOs for more than 11 years.
Financial Executives International is the leading advocate for the views of corporate financial management. Its 15,000 members hold policy-making positions as chief financial officers, treasurers and controllers at companies from every major industry. FEI enhances member professional development through peer networking, career management services, conferences, teleconferences and publications. Members participate in the activities of 85 chapters, 74 in the U.S. and 11 in Canada. FEI is headquartered in Morristown, NJ, with additional offices in Washington, DC, and Toronto.
Visit www.financialexecutives.org for more information.
1 At time of polling, the U.S. dollar versus Euro exchange rate was 1.3780 (on 10/1/2010)
2At time of polling, the U.S. dollar versus Pound exchange was 1.5835 (on 10/1/2010).
3 On an annualized basis. At time of polling, the annualized rate of inflation in August 2010 was 1.1%.
4 At time of polling, the federal funds rate remained at 0.25.
Media Contact: Nicole Madison of FD +1-212-850-5647